The Experian Small Business Index™ declined month-over-month by almost 12 points.
July 2025
- Index Value (Jul):32.8
- Previous Month:44.7
- MoM:-11.9
- YoY:-16.8 (Jul 2024 = 49.6)
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in July to 32.8, down 11.9 points. Small businesses still look healthy, but business owners are starting to show some stress in their consumer credit profiles. The primary driver was tighter lending conditions, which reduced approval rates and increased delinquencies for consumers. Pressure has built on the small business owner due to rising student loan defaults and a softer labor market, which is beginning to erode consumer credit health.
Inflation has remained even, with slight upticks in some sectors and slight decreases in others. Rent inflation continues a downward trend; it was 3.8% in June, down from 3.9% in May. Producer price inflation was also down 0.4 points to 2.3%, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Some sectors had inflation rise, with food inflation up slightly from May to 3.0% from 2.9%, overall inflation was up 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, and core inflation increased from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June. The savings rate decreased to 4.5% in May, down from 4.9% in April, as consumers continue to spend.
The Experian Small Business Index™ improved by 15.9 points month-over-month and 9.1 points Year-Over-Year Nov 2025 Index Value (Nov): 52.0 Previous Month: 36.1 MoM: 15.9 YoY: 9.1 (Nov 2024 = 42.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased substantially in November by 15.9 points to 52.0. This also represents a YoY increase of 9.1 points. There was increased business activity with the end of the government shutdown in November. Business owners saw an increase in new account openings and approval rates, along with an increased number of new business formations. Negative credit conditions improved, with reductions in delinquencies and utilization. The Small Business Optimism Index from NFIB increased to 99.0 from 98.2 in October. There was an increase in the number of new business applications to 535K from 499K in October, the most in a single month since July 2020. Inflation fell in November, to 2.7% from 3.0% in September, the lowest level since July. November unemployment was up to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. The inflation and unemployment rates are likely to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions as they consider whether additional rate cuts are warranted in 2026 after a 25 bps drop in December. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in October, dropping by 5.0 points month-over-month. Oct 2025 Index Value (Oct): 36.1 Previous Month: 41.1 MoM: -5.0 YoY: -4.6 (Oct 2024 = 40.7) The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased in October by 5 points to 36.1. This drop is attributable to decreased origination activity for small businesses and small business owners, along with an increase in delinquencies for small business owners’ consumer trades. Small business trade delinquency rates have remained stable. The NFIB reported a decrease in small business optimism to 98.2 in October from 98.8 in September, and the University of Michigan reported a drop in consumer sentiment to 51.1 in November from 53.6. Due to the extended government shutdown, several of the economic indicators were not reported for October, but there were signs of positive factors in the macroeconomic environment. US employers reported hiring 283K in October, up from 117K in September, and existing home sales were up 1.2% in October to 4.1M. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest improvement, rising 3.7 points month-over-month. Sep 2025 Index Value (Aug): 41.1 Previous Month: 37.4 MoM: +3.7 YoY: -3.8 (Sep 2024 = 44.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased in September by 3.7 points to 41.1, the second straight month of increases. The Fed lowered interest rates for a second time in late October in response to weakening job reports from ADP but indicated another rate cut in December is not certain due to rising inflation. Inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.0% in September, and core inflation decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%. Rent and food inflation were both steady, and energy prices increased 2.8% from a year ago. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment stayed nearly even as the NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August. New businesses continue to open at a historically high rate, indicating continued optimism by entrepreneurs. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
